Trump's Bold Moves in Venezuela

Rex Ballard
Jan 11
6 min read

From Military Intervention to Oil Overhaul

Introduction

In a dramatic escalation of U.S. foreign policy, President Donald Trump's administration has reshaped Venezuela's political and economic landscape in early 2026. Following a targeted military operation on January 3rd that captured former President Nicolás Maduro, the U.S. has asserted direct influence over the country's governance, oil sector, and transitional processes. This intervention, framed by Trump as a strike against "narco-terrorism" and regional instability, has led to the release of political prisoners, a major oil transfer agreement, and heightened security concerns for U.S. citizens in Venezuela. Amid threats from Maduro-backed militias and ongoing power struggles within the interim government, Trump's "peace through strength" approach has sparked international debate, with critics labeling it as economic coercion and supporters hailing it as a necessary reset for a failing state.

Background: The U.S. Intervention and Maduro's Capture

The saga began with U.S. forces executing a precision raid in Caracas on January 3, 2026, detaining Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, during a meeting with a Chinese envoy. The operation, which resulted in the deaths of approximately 32 Cuban operatives, met minimal resistance from Venezuelan military units. Trump justified the action as essential to combating drug trafficking and restoring stability, echoing months of threats against Venezuelan targets linked to attacks on vessels accused of smuggling.

In the aftermath, Delcy Rodríguez, Maduro's former vice president, assumed interim leadership, a move swiftly recognized by the U.S. This transition has been marred by internal conflicts, particularly between Rodríguez and Diosdado Cabello, stalling further reforms. International reactions have been mixed: while some praise the removal of Maduro as a step toward democracy, others, including Australian officials, urge diplomatic restraint amid fears of broader regional destabilization.

Trump's rhetoric has been unapologetic, stating the U.S. will "run" Venezuela during the transition, dismissing international law concerns with remarks like "Don't need international law." This stance has drawn parallels to historical U.S. interventions, raising questions about sovereignty and long-term implications for Latin America.

Negotiations with Interim President Delcy Rodríguez: Signs of Capitulation

President Trump's administration has engaged in direct communications with Venezuela's interim president, Delcy Rodríguez, following Nicolás Maduro's capture on January 3, 2026. Senior White House officials, including those involved in discussions led by figures like Marco Rubio, have outlined stringent demands for cooperation, which multiple reports frame as a form of capitulation by Rodríguez to avoid economic collapse and further U.S. intervention.

Key elements of the reported talks include:

Severing Ties with Adversaries: The U.S. has insisted that Venezuela expel representatives from China, Russia, Iran, and Cuba, and fully sever economic and strategic relationships with these nations. This is presented as a non-negotiable prerequisite for any relief from sanctions or access to oil markets.
Exclusive Oil Partnership: Rodríguez has reportedly agreed to partner solely with the U.S. on oil production, favoring American companies in sales of heavy crude and handing over control of logistics, including tankers and shipments, to prevent deliveries to U.S. rivals. This includes transferring 30 to 50 million barrels of crude to U.S. control, with proceeds managed by Washington through Treasury accounts to fund reconstruction under American oversight. Trump has publicly stated that Rodríguez is "cooperating" and that the deal stems from her requests, though critics describe it as coerced surrender amid Venezuela's dire financial straits—officials note the country has only weeks before insolvency due to blocked exports and full storage tanks.
Additional Conditions and Leverage: Broader demands include cracking down on narcotics trafficking, halting migration flows, expelling Cuban security personnel, and demonstrating progress within weeks. Trump has warned of potential second strikes if compliance falters, positioning the U.S. as effectively "in charge" during the transition. In response, state media like VTV has shifted tone, promoting U.S. oil negotiations as beneficial, signaling a pivot from prior anti-American rhetoric.

While some sources and observers, including former U.S. Ambassador Michael McFaul, question whether this constitutes genuine reform—noting the regime remains largely intact minus Maduro—others view Rodríguez's concessions as a pragmatic capitulation to avert total collapse. Internal Venezuelan dynamics, including potential betrayals within the military and power struggles with figures like Diosdado Cabello, add layers of uncertainty, with some speculating Maduro was "sold out" to facilitate this deal. However, resistance from Chavista loyalists and militias persists, potentially complicating full implementation.

As of January 11, 2026, these developments underscore Trump's aggressive "peace through strength" strategy, with Rodríguez's reported compliance marking a significant shift in U.S.-Venezuela relations, though long-term stability remains precarious.

Release of Political Prisoners: A Gesture Amid Pressure

One of the immediate outcomes of U.S. pressure has been the partial release of political prisoners, described by the interim government as a "gesture of peace." As of January 11, 2026, between 9 and 25 individuals have been freed, including opposition figures like former presidential candidate Enrique Marquez and various activists. Trump has lauded this as happening "in a BIG WAY," linking it to halted plans for a second military wave.

However, human rights groups emphasize that this is only a fraction of the estimated 900+ detainees still held in notorious facilities. Families continue to protest outside prisons, demanding full releases. The move has influenced neighboring Nicaragua, which released dozens of its own prisoners following U.S. demands. Critics argue these releases are tactical concessions rather than genuine reforms, with power struggles in Caracas delaying progress.

The Oil Deal: U.S. Oversight and Massive Investments

At the heart of Trump's strategy are Venezuela's vast oil reserves, the world's largest. The interim government has agreed to transfer 30 to 50 million barrels of crude to the U.S. for refining and sale at market rates (around $55 per barrel), potentially generating $1.65 to $2.75 billion. These funds will be managed through U.S. Treasury-controlled accounts to ensure they benefit the Venezuelan people, bypassing regime insiders.

Trump meets with oil industry executives on Jan 6, 2026 - image foxnews.com

Trump has imposed a blockade on sanctioned tankers, redirecting exports from China to the U.S., and cut off subsidized oil to Cuba, pressuring Havana to "make a deal" or face consequences. On January 7, 2026, a Russian flagged tanker believed to be carrying Venezuelan crude oil was interdicted by the US Coast Guard with assistance of Naval forces. This could flood global markets, lowering prices and impacting suppliers like Iran.

Venezuela's production has plummeted to 800,000-1.1 million barrels per day, less than one-third of its 1990s peak of over 3 million bpd, due to mismanagement, sanctions, and underinvestment. To reverse this, Trump met with executives from Exxon-Mobil, Chevron, and others, proposing $100 billion+ in U.S. investments to modernize infrastructure, with promises of military security. However, industry leaders, including Exxon's CEO who called Venezuela "uninvestable," remain cautious, demanding legal and political reforms. Trump has threatened to exclude non-cooperative firms and suggested subsidies or U.S.-processed oil to sweeten the deal.

Analysts estimate pipeline repairs alone could cost $8 billion, with full recovery taking years. While Trump claims the deal originated from Rodríguez's request, detractors view it as resource seizure, potentially violating international norms.

Threats to U.S. Expats: Militia Mobilization and Evacuation Warnings

The intervention has intensified dangers for Americans in Venezuela. On January 10, the U.S. State Department issued an urgent advisory, urging all citizens to leave immediately due to threats from armed "colectivos" – Maduro-loyalist militias – who have set up roadblocks and are reportedly targeting U.S. nationals. This follows Maduro's pre-capture call to mobilize 4.5 to 8 million militia members for potential guerrilla warfare.

While Venezuela's government dismissed the warnings as "fabricated," the U.S. cites limited consular access and escalating instability. No confirmed attacks on expats have been reported as of January 11, but the situation remains volatile, with potential for escalation amid protests and power vacuums.

Conclusions

Venezuelan's around the world that were fortunate to escape the Chavez and Maduro regime, celebrate Trump's actions and hail it as a liberation of the Venezuelan people. We are still a long way from knowing if this is true. With the Maduro faithful trying to retain power there is a lot that still needs to happen in order to set Venezuela on the right trajectory.