Economic Winners and Losers in the Wake of Venezuela's Regime Change

Rex Ballard
Jan 11
5 min read

Introduction

The recent U.S.led ousting of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in early January 2026 has sent shockwaves through global energy markets and international trade dynamics. Captured during a dramatic operation, Maduro's removal marks a pivotal shift in the Western Hemisphere, redirecting Venezuela's vast oil reserves and other resources toward U.S. interests. Economist E.J. Antoni, a research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, has framed this event as a prime example of the "Trump Corollary" to the Monroe Doctrine—a policy emphasizing "America First" economic dominance. In his analysis, Antoni highlights clear winners, such as the United States and the Venezuelan people, and stark losers, including Canada and China. This article delves into Antoni's assessment, exploring the economic implications for oil production, inflation, trade leverage, and national security, while providing historical context for the Trump Corollary.

Background on the Venezuela Events

Venezuela, once a major oil exporter producing around 3 million barrels per day (bpd) before Hugo Chávez's socialist regime, has seen its output plummet to under 1 million bpd due to mismanagement, corruption, and international sanctions. Under Maduro, the country aligned closely with adversaries like China and Russia, exporting much of its heavy crude to Beijing while allowing foreign military presence and nationalizing assets from U.S. companies. The U.S. intervention in January 2026, justified under national security pretexts, has rerouted tens of millions of barrels of Venezuelan oil—previously destined for China—directly to American refineries in Texas and Louisiana. President Donald Trump has stated that the U.S. will be "very involved" in rebuilding Venezuela's "badly broken" oil infrastructure, requiring billions in investments but promising reimbursements through direct crude access.

This move not only addresses U.S. energy needs but also revives Venezuela's economy, which Antoni describes as a "veritable gold mine" beyond oil, encompassing rare earth minerals, lumber, bauxite (for aluminum), natural gas, and more. U.S. refineries, optimized for heavy, sulfur-rich crude like Venezuela's, can now operate more efficiently, replacing pricier alternatives and easing supply constraints that have persisted since sanctions on Venezuela and Russia.

E.J. Antoni's Economic Assessment: Winners

Antoni's commentary positions the events as a "massive economic win" for the U.S., emphasizing reduced energy costs that permeate every sector of the economy—from transportation and manufacturing to food production via cheaper fertilizers derived from natural gas. He argues that Americans "seriously underestimate" the ripple effects of lower oil prices on daily life.

United States: Consumers, Businesses, and Oil Companies

Lower Energy Prices and Inflation Relief: With access to nearly one-fifth of global proven oil reserves, the U.S. can ramp up Venezuelan production over time, adding 1-2 million bpd to imports. This influx puts "downward pressure on inflation," countering rises seen under previous administrations. Gulf Coast refiners like Valero, Chevron, Phillips 66, and PBF Energy stand to benefit immediately, as Venezuelan crude can be acquired at discounts, improving margins and feedstock flexibility.
Investment and Job Creation: U.S. oil firms, previously expropriated, will invest billions to modernize decayed infrastructure, restoring output to pre-Chávez levels. This creates jobs, boosts profits, and enhances national security by shifting supplies away from China's sphere, reducing vulnerabilities in potential conflicts.
Broader Resource Access: Beyond oil, U.S. dominance over Venezuela's rare earths and other minerals strengthens supply chains for tech and manufacturing, undermining rivals.

Venezuelan People

The influx of American capital promises economic revival for Venezuelans. Antoni notes that shared profits from a rebuilt oil sector, combined with job creation and income growth, will reverse decades of socialist neglect. Venezuela's stock market has already surged 50-80% post-ouster, signaling investor confidence.

Economic Losers

While the U.S. and Venezuela gain, Antoni identifies significant setbacks for others, particularly those losing market share or strategic leverage.

Canada: The Biggest Loser

Canada emerges as the "biggest loser of all," according to Antoni, due to its heavy reliance on U.S. exports of over 4 million bpd of similar heavy crude from oil sands. With Venezuelan oil now flowing to U.S. refiners, Canada's scarcity premium evaporates, leading to:

Eroded Trade Leverage: Previously, Canada's role as the top U.S. heavy crude supplier provided bargaining power in negotiations. Now, it must "surrender to all of Trump’s demands," opening markets to free competition without alternatives.
Economic Slowdown: Export-dependent Canada faces job losses and reduced revenues, extending beyond oil to lumber, minerals, and natural gas, where Venezuela's resources now compete. Antoni criticizes Canada's "far-left anti-energy agenda," such as blocking pipelines, for exacerbating vulnerabilities—calling the impact "devastating" long-term.
Stock Impacts: Canadian producers like Cenovus Energy, Canadian Natural Resources, and Imperial Oil have seen shares drop 1.5-5.6% in response.

China, Russia and Cuba

China loses a critical oil supply line, weakening its global chains and influence in the Americas. Russia faces similar setbacks, as Venezuela no longer serves as a proxy for anti-U.S. activities. This shift bolsters U.S. security by starving adversaries of resources.

The Trump Corollary in Depth

Antoni coins the "Trump Corollary" as an economic evolution of historical U.S. doctrines, sharpening focus on resource control and trade dominance in the Western Hemisphere. Rooted in the 1823 Monroe Doctrine—which warned European powers against interference—and the 1904 Roosevelt Corollary—which authorized U.S. interventions for stability—the Trump version adds an "America First" economic lens.

Core Principles: It warns outsiders (e.g., China, Russia, Europe) to stay out economically, prioritizing U.S. access to resources. In Venezuela, this means removing hostile regimes, redirecting oil flows, and enabling U.S. investments. Antoni quotes: "If the Monroe Doctrine warned Europeans to stay out of the Western Hemisphere and the Roosevelt Corollary established American intervention therein, then the Trump Corollary has put a finer, economic point on the matter that’s best summed up in two words: America first."
Application to Venezuela: The ousting exemplifies the corollary by countering foreign influences, reclaiming expropriated assets, and positioning the U.S. "firmly in the driver’s seat." It involves redeploying military forces, using lethal force against threats, and basing troops regionally if needed.
Geopolitical Reset: This policy resets hemispheric relations, barring Canada from leverage and forcing open markets. Critics label it "latter-day imperialism," but Antoni views it as pragmatic, enhancing U.S. prosperity while punishing complacent allies.

Broader implications include accelerated U.S. energy independence, downward global oil price pressure, and debates on international legitimacy. Over years, Venezuelan production could stabilize at 3 million bpd, further benefiting the U.S. economy.

Conclusion

The Venezuela events, through Antoni's lens, underscore a bold "America First" strategy that prioritizes economic security over diplomatic niceties. While the U.S. and Venezuelans reap rewards in lower costs and growth, Canada and China face diminished influence. The Trump Corollary signals a new era of hemispheric dominance, where resource control drives policy. As global markets adjust, this could herald sustained relief from inflation and stronger U.S. leverage in trade wars.