Tensions Escalate Off Coast of Venezuela

Rex Ballard
Dec 22, 2025
4 min read

In mid-December 2025, President Donald Trump announced a "complete blockade" of sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, marking a significant escalation in US efforts to enforce long-standing sanctions against the Nicolás Maduro regime. This move, framed as part of a broader anti-narcotics and sanctions-evasion campaign, has disrupted Venezuela's oil exports—its primary economic lifeline—and intensified pressure on Maduro's government. The blockade involves US Coast Guard and military assets in the Caribbean, targeting the "dark fleet" of vessels that transport Venezuelan crude, often to destinations like China. As of December 22, 2025, the operation has led to pursuits of at least three tankers, with analysts warning of potential escalation to broader conflict.

The initiative builds on existing US sanctions aimed at pressuring political change in Venezuela, but it now explicitly ties into claims that Maduro's officials facilitate drug trafficking routes. This dual focus—on oil sanctions and counter-narcotics—has resulted in lethal strikes on suspected drug boats and record drug seizures, further straining the regime's resources and international standing.

Tanker Pursuits and Seizures: Disrupting the Oil Lifeline

The blockade has centered on intercepting very large sanctioned crude carriers (VLCCs) linked to Venezuela's shadow fleet, which evades detection to ship oil despite US restrictions. Three high-profile incidents highlight the operation's intensity:

Skipper (December 10, 2025): This VLCC, previously involved in Iranian shipments, was intercepted, boarded, and seized while carrying Venezuelan crude. It was escorted to US waters near Houston, Texas, where it remains moored.
Centuries (December 21, 2025): Loaded with about 1.8 million barrels of Venezuelan Merey crude en route to China under a false name, this tanker was boarded and seized, further disrupting exports.
Bella 1 (December 22, 2025): Unlike the previous two, which were loaded with cargo, the Bella 1 was empty (in ballast) and heading to Venezuela to load oil. With ties to Iran and a history of sanctions evasion, it evaded boarding after transmitting distress signals. US forces lacked an immediate warrant, allowing it to sail away, though the pursuit continues.

These actions have a deterrence effect: Over 30 sanctioned ships are at risk, oil loadings at Venezuelan ports have slowed, and multiple tankers have reversed course. Success rates for the three publicized pursuits stand at about 67% (two seizures out of three), though the Bella 1 case remains unresolved. The operations have contributed to slight rises in global oil prices, reflecting supply disruption concerns.

US Coast Guard patrolling waters near Venezuela - photo courtesy www.news.uscg.gov

Drug Boat Strikes and Seizures: The Anti-Narcotics Front

Parallel to the tanker blockade, the US has ramped up counter-narcotics operations, conducting over 20 strikes on suspected drug-trafficking vessels since September 2025, destroying 29 boats and causing 104 deaths. Recent strikes include two on December 19 that killed five, and another killing eight, targeting cartel-linked boats in the eastern Pacific.

Seizures have been record-breaking. In fiscal year 2025, the US Coast Guard (USCG) interdicted nearly 510,000 pounds of cocaine in the Eastern Pacific and Caribbean. Under Operation Pacific Viper, over 150,000 pounds were seized by early December. Notable Venezuela-related incidents include:

June 30: Over 2,300 pounds of drugs seized off Acosta, valued at $6 million.
April 5: 1,294 pounds of cocaine and 4,012 pounds of marijuana interdicted near Puerto Cabello.
August: Historic offload of 76,140 pounds worth $473 million.
March: Over 80,000 pounds since January.
June: 17,450 pounds of cocaine and 2,585 pounds of marijuana ($132 million).
November: 8,700 pounds ($64.5 million).
December 14: 27,551 pounds ($203.9 million).

These efforts, often with international partners, underscore US claims that Venezuela facilitates a portion of Latin American drug transit.

Drug seizures off of Venezuela - photo courtesy of www.justice.gov

Economic and Political Pressure on the Maduro Regime

The blockade is subjecting Maduro's government to immense strain by targeting oil revenues, which fund the regime and its alleged narcoterrorism activities. Venezuelan crude exports have plummeted, with analysts like Jason Marczak of the Atlantic Council noting it could sever "financial lifelines that keep Maduro in power." US officials, including Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, have stated Maduro "needs to be gone," signaling regime change as a goal. Senator Lindsey Graham warned that leaving Maduro in power after US buildup would be a "fatal mistake" to America's global standing.

Trump reportedly issued an ultimatum for Maduro to relinquish power during a call, but Maduro's demands—full amnesty, lifting sanctions, closing his ICC case, and appointing an interim leader—were rejected. Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado has vowed a peaceful transition, asserting "Maduro will leave power." The Treasury has targeted regime insiders and sanctions evaders, adding to the squeeze. Russia reportedly is evacuating diplomats' families amid tensions indicate growing instability.

However, no concrete signs suggest Maduro is imminently stepping down; he remains defiant, accusing the US of "warmongering" and "colonialist pretense."

Maduro's Responses: Defiance and Military Mobilization

In response, Maduro has condemned the blockade as "illegal" and "piracy," vowing resistance and denouncing the US at the UN. He ordered the Venezuelan Navy to escort outbound oil ships, risking direct confrontation with US forces. The military has distributed rifles to civilians in working-class districts, forming militias for "armed resistance" against potential US occupation—a tactic echoing Chávez-era policies. Maduro has warned of the largest US Caribbean buildup in decades, urging regional unity to halt "military deployments, blockades, and armed attacks." Venezuela's armed forces, described as "aging and hollowed-out," may opt for asymmetric warfare rather than direct battle.

Russia has pledged "full support" against US actions, while China condemned tanker seizures as violations of international law.

Looming Risks and Potential Outcomes

The blockade risks "gray zone" escalation, with Maduro's mobilizations heightening confrontation chances. While US plans for a post-Maduro scenario exist, including stabilizing a power vacuum, Maduro's defiance suggests a prolonged standoff. Latin America remains divided, with Maduro urging peace amid warnings of regional economic harm. As tensions mount, the blockade could either force concessions or ignite broader instability in the region.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJCH7cDXseM

News report on US pursuit of Bella 1 oil tanker - YouTube.com

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