Shasta County 2026 Primary: Diverging Vote-by-Mail and Election Day Trends Leave Several Races Too Close to Call
- Elisa Ballard
- 1 day ago
- 3 min read
In Shasta County, a noticeable shift in voting patterns emerged with the 2020 election and has continued in subsequent cycles. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, absentee/vote-by-mail (VBM) ballots generally tracked closely with in-person Election Day results. Partisan and candidate percentages showed relatively modest differences regardless of voting method.
Since the implementation of California’s universal mail-in ballot system — in which every registered voter automatically receives a ballot — a clearer divergence has emerged. Early-processed vote-by-mail ballots (received prior to election day) have frequently leaned more moderate or Democratic compared to Election Day in-person voting, which has tended to favor more conservative candidates in this traditionally Republican-leaning county.
This pattern is once again visible in the June 2, 2026, Statewide Direct Primary Election, as reflected in the early/unofficial results released by the County, with a substantial number of ballots still uncounted.
County Clerk / Registrar of Voters Race
As of June 3, 3:19 a.m., the last "drop" of unofficial election results, in the race for Shasta County Clerk/Registrar of Voters, significant differences are emerging between voting methods:
Joanna Francescut currently leads with strong performance on the early vote-by-mail ballots (approximately 59.27%).
Clint Curtis is performing well on Election Day ballots, capturing 56.75% of those votes so far.
With 21,054 total ballots tallied as of the June 3, 3:19 a.m. drop (82% of which were early VBM ballots), and an estimated 35,000 to 39,000 ballots still to be counted, the outcome remains uncertain. If Curtis maintains his strong Election Day trend across the remaining ballots, he could potentially close the current gap and overtake Francescut. At this stage, no winner can be confidently projected.
Board of Supervisors – District 1
A similar split is evident in Supervisorial District 1:
Erin Resner holds a solid early lead driven by early vote-by-mail ballots (approximately 55.56% VBM).
Kevin Crye is trailing in the overall count but is leading on Election Day ballots with 51.16%, while Resner receives 40.63%, and Richard Gallardo trails with roughly 8.21% on Election Day.
Given the current numbers and remaining ballots, it appears possible that no candidate will reach the 50% plus 1 threshold required to win outright. This would send the top two candidates — most likely Resner and Crye — into a November 3, 2026 runoff.
Board of Supervisors – District 5
District 5 also shows contrasting trends:
On early vote-by-mail ballots, Mike Gallagher leads with 50.87%, followed by incumbent Chris Kelstrom at 39.50%, and Gary Oxley at 9.63%.
On Election Day, votes counted so far, Kelstrom leads with 48.28%.
With three candidates splitting the vote and clear differences between early mail-in ballots and in-person voting, it is probable that no candidate will exceed 50%. This race is also expected to head to a November runoff between the top two finishers.
Outlook
The next scheduled vote update from the Shasta County Elections Office is Thursday, June 4, 2026, at 5:00 p.m.
While early results show meaningful differences between the early vote-by-mail trend and Election Day trends, thousands of ballots remain to be processed. These outstanding ballots — many of them vote-by-mail ballots and those dropped off at precincts on Election Day — will ultimately determine the final outcomes. In low-turnout primaries like this one, small shifts in remaining votes can significantly impact results.
Stay tuned to Shasta Unfiltered for the latest updates to the election results in Shasta County.
