Update on Iran Military Action
- Rex Ballard
- Mar 5
- 6 min read
Operation Epic Fury (U.S.) and Operation Roaring Lion (Israel) have entered their second week as of March 5, 2026, now in their sixth day since launching on February 28. The joint operations continue to intensify, with expanded strikes deeper into Iranian territory, achieving significant degradation of Iran's retaliatory capabilities amid ongoing Iranian missile and drone barrages across the region.
Key recent developments include:
U.S. forces sank the Iranian frigate IRIS Dena in the Indian Ocean via submarine torpedo—the first such naval kill since World War II—along with reports of 17-20 Iranian vessels and at least one submarine destroyed, severely impacting Iran's naval headquarters in Bandar Abbas and overall fleet.
U.S. strikes are progressing "deeper inland," targeting command nodes, logistics, industrial sites, remaining ballistic missile infrastructure, and production facilities, as stated by Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who described unrelenting, larger-scale operations.
Israeli Air Force conducting waves of strikes on dozens of ballistic missile launchers, air defenses, regime repression facilities in western and central Iran, and nuclear-related sites (e.g., renewed hits on Natanz entrances, with no reported radiation leaks).
U.S. carrier groups (including USS Abraham Lincoln) and destroyers launching around-the-clock sorties and Tomahawk missiles, contributing to over 2,000 total targets struck in the early days, with cumulative figures now higher.
The campaign has drawn in additional actors: Multiple Arab nations, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan—initially reluctant or targeted by Iranian retaliation—have condemned Iran's "indiscriminate" missile and drone attacks on their sovereign territories and U.S. assets hosted there (e.g., fires at Fujairah oil terminal, Al Minhad base impacts, U.S. Embassy drone hit in Riyadh, Al Udeid base in Qatar affected). Reports indicate these states are now providing enabling support, such as coordinating air defenses, sharing intelligence, or allowing overflights/logistics for coalition operations, effectively joining the action against Iran after Tehran's strikes crossed red lines and isolated it regionally. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and other Gulf leaders reportedly lobbied for U.S. action pre-conflict and are now fully backing the effort amid anger over Iranian aggression.
Additionally, Kurdish ground forces (including Iranian Kurdish opposition militias like PJAK, PAK, KDPI, and others based in Iraq's Kurdistan Region) have reportedly begun crossing into northwestern Iran from Iraq, launching limited ground offensives or incursions to stretch Iranian defenses and exploit ethnic tensions. U.S. officials (including the CIA) have been in talks with these groups, providing arms/support and air cover in some cases, with thousands of Peshmerga fighters allegedly moving near border areas like Sulaymaniyah province and Marivan. Iran has responded with strikes on Kurdish positions in Iraq and claims to have neutralized incursions, but the development risks opening a multi-front ground war in Iran's west.
NATO countries are providing growing support for U.S. forces without direct offensive involvement in the campaign. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has expressed "widespread support" among European allies (including France, Germany, the UK, and others) for degrading Iran's nuclear and missile capabilities, noting individual allies offer enabling assistance such as logistics, air defense deployments (e.g., Patriot systems), intelligence sharing, and defensive measures against Iranian threats (e.g., intercepts over Turkey or Cyprus). NATO itself is not taking part in offensive actions but vows to defend alliance territory.
Iran's retaliatory actions have broadened regionally, with fresh waves on March 5 targeting Israel, U.S. bases in Gulf states (Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia), and others. Escalations include:
Strikes causing infrastructure damage (e.g., fires at the Fujairah oil terminal in the UAE, impacts at Al Minhad base, a U.S. Embassy drone hit in Riyadh, and Al Udeid base in Qatar), plus brief threats and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to shipping declines and oil price surges.
Hezbollah rocket barrages from Lebanon prompted Israeli ground advances into southern Lebanon and counterstrikes on Beirut-linked targets.
Iranian denials of certain launches (e.g., toward Turkey) amid reports of attacks on Kurdish forces in Iraq and other sites; overall, Iran has fired hundreds of missiles and thousands of drones to date.
Iran's ballistic missile attacks have shown a clear and accelerating decline since coalition forces prioritized destroying launchers, storage sites, production facilities, and related infrastructure.
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), Gen. Dan Caine, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), and analyses (e.g., Institute for the Study of War / Critical Threats Project) confirm:
Theater ballistic missile launches down 86% overall from the February 28 peak, with a further 23% drop in the most recent 24-hour period (as of March 4-5).
Drone launches down approximately 73%.
Around 300 ballistic missile launchers destroyed cumulatively by the IDF and coalition, contributing to reduced daily fire rates (from hundreds on Day 1 to dozens or fewer recently in many sectors).
Specific trends (e.g., UAE Ministry of Defense data and broader regional tracking) show sharp drops, with barrages against Israel falling from at least 20 on February 28 to six each on March 2-3, and minimal volumes more recently.
The following table summarizes estimated Iranian ballistic missile launches by day (regional total across targets like Israel, UAE, Gulf states; figures are approximate, drawn from U.S./Israeli military statements, IDF assessments, think tank reports, and open-source data; exact totals vary by source due to classification and sectoral focus, but the downward trend is consistent):
Date | Estimated Ballistic Missile Launches (Regional Total) | Approximate Change from Feb 28 | Notes/Source Highlights |
February 28 (Day 1) | ~350–500+ (e.g., massive salvos; ~137–200+ to Israel/UAE in initial waves; at least 20 barrages to Israel) | Baseline (100%) | Peak of Operation True Promise IV; high-volume barrages regionally. CENTCOM/IDF/early reports. |
March 1 | ~120–175 (sharp drop; reduced waves) | ~50–65% reduction | Early launcher strikes disrupt coordination; smaller barrages. IDF estimates, regional data. |
March 2 | ~100–130 (further decline; sporadic but smaller) | ~60–75% reduction | ~9–30 missiles per attack in sectors; ~300 launchers destroyed cumulatively by this point. ISW/CTP, IDF. |
March 3 | ~25–50 (low rate; e.g., at least six barrages to Israel) | ~85–90% reduction | Fire collapsing; consistent with 70%+ drop in some sectors. CENTCOM/Gen. Caine, IDF (~300 launchers destroyed). |
March 4–5 (latest) | Minimal (~3–20+ regionally; continued low volumes) | Additional ~23% in prior 24h; total ~86% from Day 1 | Very low; rationing/depletion evident amid ongoing strikes. CENTCOM briefing, UAE trends, WSJ/Western officials. |
Overall Trend (as of March 5) | Cumulative regional launches are declining sharply | -86% from Day 1 baseline | Aligns with ~70–95% drop in daily fire rates; drone activity -73%. Analysts cite launcher destruction, C2/logistics disruption, stock preservation for attrition war. |
This waning is attributed to kinetic destruction (~300 launchers neutralized), disruption of command nodes/production (e.g., solid-fuel sites), Iranian rationing of pre-war stocks (~2,500–6,000 missiles estimated), and coalition air superiority limiting operations. While sporadic launches, drone reliance, and proxy efforts (e.g., Hezbollah) persist, ballistic missile volume and intensity have markedly decreased.
Visual evidence from the conflict includes satellite imagery showing damage at key sites like Natanz and missile bases, footage of strikes in Tehran, and U.S. military releases of operations:
The Human Cost
As the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran—Operation Epic Fury / Operation Roaring Lion—enters its second week and beyond, the toll on coalition forces remains low compared to the devastation inflicted on Iranian targets, yet every loss carries profound weight for the nations involved.
In a somber reflection on the human cost borne by American and Israeli service members and civilians, the conflict has claimed the lives of at least six U.S. service members, primarily from Iranian ballistic missile and drone strikes on forward bases in Kuwait, Qatar, and other regional sites during retaliatory waves. An additional 18 American troops have been seriously wounded, with injuries including concussions, shrapnel wounds, and blast trauma, highlighting the persistent dangers even with advanced defenses.
On the Israeli side, despite Iron Dome and allied interceptions, Iranian missile barrages have killed at least 11-12 people—mostly civilians in impacted residential zones like areas near Jerusalem, Beit Shemesh, and Tel Aviv—while injuring hundreds more through direct hits, shrapnel, and shelter-related incidents (with over 1,000 injured reported in some updates).
These casualties, though minimized by superior technology and rapid degradation of Iranian launchers, evoke deep national mourning: families forever altered, communities in grief, and a poignant reminder that no defense is impenetrable in the chaos of war. As operations press forward to neutralize Iran's missile, nuclear, and proxy threats, these fallen and wounded stand as solemn testaments to the heavy price of confronting long-standing dangers, steeling resolve for what officials describe as a potentially protracted effort.
The campaign shows no immediate signs of de-escalation, with President Trump indicating it could extend beyond initial projections (potentially weeks or longer) to fully dismantle threats, including no firm commitment against ground troops in some statements. Analysts note a shift toward attrition, with risks of broader involvement. Regional impacts include airspace closures, oil market volatility, embassy measures, and heightened alerts as of March 5, 2026. Casualty figures remain contested—Iranian sources claim higher coalition losses and civilian deaths in Iran exceeding 1,000—while U.S.-Israeli assessments emphasize thousands of Iranian military personnel neutralized with minimal friendly losses.
The situation remains highly fluid amid ongoing strikes, retaliations, and regional expansions.
Multimedia Links:
Satellite images of damage at Iran's Natanz nuclear facility (before/after strikes): https://www.reuters.com/pictures/satellite-images-show-scope-iran-strikes-2026-03-02 (includes views of building damage near Natanz).
CNN photo gallery of war impacts (damaged sites in Israel, unexploded ordnance): https://www.cnn.com/2026/02/28/world/gallery/middle-east-iran-attacks.
Video: Intense U.S.-Israeli bombardment across Iran (flames and smoke in Tehran and other areas): https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/5/video-intense-us-israeli-bombardment-across-iran.
U.S. military-released footage of strikes on Iranian targets: https://www.nbcnews.com/video/shorts/u-s-military-releases-video-of-strikes-on-iranian-targets-258528325810.
Footage of aftermath in Tehran (smoke billowing from buildings): https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/c62gndxdpego.
Video on U.S. submarine sinking Iranian frigate IRIS Dena: https://news.usni.org/2026/03/04/video-u-s-attack-boat-torpedoes-iranian-frigate-off-sri-lanka (includes periscope/torpedo strike visuals).
