The Iranian Crisis 2026 & the Russia Connection

How Does this Potentially Benefit the Ukraine and Hurt Russia?

In early 2026, Iran finds itself engulfed in one of the most severe internal crises in its modern history. What began as economic grievances in late December 2025 has escalated into nationwide protests demanding systemic change, including calls for the restoration of the monarchy and an end to theocratic rule. With reports of over 2,000 deaths—predominantly protesters—amid a brutal security crackdown, the unrest has exposed deep structural weaknesses in the Islamic Republic. This turmoil is not isolated; it reverberates globally, particularly through its ties to Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine and the recent ousting of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. As authoritarian alliances fray, the crisis could reshape international power dynamics, economic landscapes, and trajectory of the Russia / Ukraine conflict.

The Spark and Spread of the Protests

The protests ignited in Tehran's Grand Bazaar on December 28, 2025, fueled by a catastrophic economic collapse: soaring inflation, unemployment, currency devaluation, and infrastructure failures. Demonstrations quickly spread across provinces, including ethnic minority regions like Azerbaijan, despite initial skepticism among groups benefiting from the current regime. By mid-January 2026, protesters were storming government buildings, chanting slogans against Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and demanding political reforms.

The regime's response has been swift and lethal. Security forces, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), have deployed live ammunition, resulting in at least 1,850 protester deaths (and climbing), according to U.S.-based human rights groups. Reports indicate indiscriminate killings, even of uninvolved civilians, as the crackdown intensifies. To stifle coordination, Iran has implemented internet blackouts and jammed Starlink satellite signals, potentially with assistance from Russia or China. Despite a possible decline in protest intensity due to repression, experts warn this is no longer episodic unrest but a structural challenge to the clerical state.

Russia's Role in Suppressing the Uprising

Russia has emerged as a key supporter of the Iranian regime, providing indirect but crucial aid to quell the protests. Moscow has shared surveillance technologies, including facial recognition and internet "whitelists" akin to Iran's national network, to monitor and disrupt demonstrators. Recent reports suggest Russia has supplied armored vehicles like the Spartak and attack helicopters to bolster security forces. Diplomatically, the Kremlin has framed the protests as Western-orchestrated "color revolutions," condemning U.S. and Israeli interference while blocking international resolutions on human rights abuses.

Direct military intervention by Russia is unlikely, given its commitments in Ukraine and a history of abandoning allies in terminal crises, such as Syria in 2024 and Venezuela in early 2026. Instead, Moscow might offer asylum to Iranian leaders if the regime collapses, mirroring its handling of ousted Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. This support is transactional: Iran is vital for Russia's military needs, supplying Shahed drones and missiles for the Ukraine war since 2022. Disruptions from protests have already strained this pipeline, forcing Russia to ration resources or turn to North Korea, an unreliable provider.

Russian drones used against Ukraine - Most are provided by Iran - image www.cnn.com

Ripple Effects on the Russia-Ukraine War

Iran's instability directly threatens Russia's war effort in Ukraine. A regime change could halt drone and missile supplies, weakening Moscow's aerial campaigns and exposing vulnerabilities in its military-industrial complex. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has publicly supported the protesters, calling the unrest an "uprising" and urging global aid to fracture Russia's alliances. For Kyiv, a weakened Iran means reduced pressure on defenses, potentially shifting the war's momentum.

However, chaos in Iran risks broader instability, including refugee crises or power vacuums that could divert Western attention from Ukraine. Russia's narrative portrays the protests as foreign meddling, echoing its justification for the Ukraine invasion.

Economic and Geopolitical Blows to Russia, Compounded by Venezuela's Fall

If Iran's regime falls, Russia faces profound setbacks, amplified by Maduro's ousting on January 3, 2026. Geopolitically, Iran is a pillar of Russia's anti-Western axis, alongside China, North Korea, and formerly Venezuela. Its loss would erode influence in the Middle East, Syria, and Central Asia, while diminishing credibility among allies like Belarus or Cuba. Venezuela's shift under U.S. influence has already isolated Russia in Latin America, setting a precedent that could embolden actions against other proxies.

Economically, Russia's hydrocarbon-dependent economy—50% of revenues from oil—could collapse. A post-regime Iran and normalized Venezuela would flood global markets with oil, dropping prices below Russia's $50/barrel breakeven, triggering ruble devaluation, inflation, and GDP contraction. The International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) through Iran, crucial for sanctions evasion, would be disrupted, forcing reliance on discounted sales to China. Combined with Venezuela's severed ties, this could strain Russia's war economy, potentially inspiring domestic unrest.

Escalating Russia-U.S. Tensions

Russia's backing of Iran has intensified friction with the U.S., already strained by Ukraine. President Donald Trump has threatened strikes, posting "help is on its way" to protesters, while considering military options against nuclear sites. Russia has warned of "disastrous consequences," positioning itself as Tehran's defender and risking proxy escalations or sanctions. This dynamic reinforces the "axis of resistance," but a regime collapse could isolate Moscow further, benefiting U.S. interests.

Potential Outcomes and Global Perspectives

Experts debate whether this is Iran's "revolution in the making" or another suppressed uprising. While repression has slowed momentum, underlying grievances persist, and external pressures from the U.S. and Israel loom. China and Russia remain transactional partners, unlikely to abandon Iran fully but cautious amid their own challenges. Globally, reactions are divided: Western leaders back protesters, while Moscow and Tehran decry interference.

The crisis underscores the fragility of authoritarian networks. A fallen Iran could tip the scales in Ukraine, crash energy markets, and diminish Russia's global stature—potentially heralding a new multipolar order where U.S. leverage grows. As events unfold, the world watches a pivotal moment that could redefine alliances and conflicts for years to come.

Excellent analysis by Prof. Gerdes - outlines how the fall of Iran can have devastating consequences for Russia

Sources:

News Articles and Reports

1. Russia slams US strike threats, warns against interference in Iran - Reuters (Published: 15 hours ago) Snippet: Russia condemned "subversive external interference" in Iran's politics and U.S. threats of strikes amid protests.Link: https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-slams-us-strike-threats-warns-against-interference-iran-2026-01-13

2. What Iran's Protests Mean for Countries in the Middle East - Council on Foreign Relations (Published: 9 hours ago) Snippet: Protests could have sweeping regional effects amid historic changes.Link: https://www.cfr.org/expert-brief/what-irans-protests-mean-countries-middle-east

3. What Russia Will—and Won't—Do for Its Embattled Ally Iran - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (Published: 2 days ago) Snippet: Analysis of Russia's limited support amid Iran's powerful protest wave.Link: https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2026/01/iran-protests-russia-involvement?lang=en

4. Russia rejects 'attempts to blackmail' Iran's partners amid Trump's 25... - Anadolu Agency (Published: 13 hours ago) Snippet: Moscow condemns interference and U.S. threats.Link: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/russia-rejects-attempts-to-blackmail-iran-s-partners-amid-trump-s-25-tariff-plans/3798354

5. Iran Update, January 13, 2026 - Institute for the Study of War (Published: 1 hour ago) Snippet: Recorded 7 protests across 6 provinces; low-to-medium confidence assessment.Link: https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-january-13-2026

6. Why Moscow may be central to Tehran's struggle for survival - Iran International (Published: 1 day ago) Snippet: Russia's support key to containing protests challenging the regime.Link: https://www.iranintl.com/en/202601063678

7. Iran: What challenges face the country in 2026? - UK Parliament Commons Library (Published: 5 days ago) Snippet: Protests sparked by weak economy; pressure on proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah.Link: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-10456

8. Iran at geopolitical crossroads as protests pressure regime - DW (Published: 13 hours ago) Snippet: Allies China and Russia criticize U.S. "snapback" sanctions.Link: https://www.dw.com/en/iran-at-geopolitical-crossroads-as-protests-pressure-regime/a-75492953

9. “State of Siege”: Iran Protest Death Toll Rises to 2,000... - Democracy Now! (Published: 17 hours ago) Snippet: Economic crisis from U.S. sanctions; at least 648 killed since late December.Link: https://www.democracynow.org/2026/1/13/vali_nasr_iran_protests_trump

10. Iran Update, January 12, 2026 - Institute for the Study of War (Published: 1 day ago) Snippet: Regime encouraging counter-protests.Link: https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-january-12-2026

11. Iran at a crossroads: Repression, resistance and scenarios - European Policy Centre (Published: 22 hours ago) Snippet: Structural crisis challenging clerical state.Link: https://www.epc.eu/publication/iran-at-a-crossroads-repression-resistance-and-scenarios

12. Iran protests LIVE: Tehran says Trump encouraging political... - Al Jazeera (Published: 26 minutes ago) Snippet: Russia condemns interference; U.S. threats.Link: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/1/14/iran-protests-live-tehran-says-trump-encouraging-political-destabilisation

13. Iran's troubled regime cracks down hard as Trump ratchets up... - CNN (Published: 2 days ago) Snippet: Heavy sanctions including "snapback" on nuclear program.Link: https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/11/middleeast/iran-regime-clings-to-power-protests-hnk-latam-intl

14. Russia Analytical Report, Jan. 5–12, 2026 - Russia Matters (Published: 1 day ago) Snippet: Experts predict frozen conflict in Ukraine for 2026.Link: https://www.russiamatters.org/news/russia-analytical-report/russia-analytical-report-jan-5-12-2026

15. Iran starts 2026 facing protests, inflation and sanctions - DW (Published: Jan 1, 2026) Snippet: Fallout from sanctions, economic crisis.Link: https://www.dw.com/en/iran-starts-2026-facing-protests-inflation-and-sanctions/a-75360572

16. The Iranian Regime Could Fall - Foreign Affairs (Published: 1 day ago) Snippet: Thousands protesting authoritarian regime.Link: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/iranian-regime-could-fall

17. Why Russia's economy is unlikely to collapse even if oil prices fall - The Guardian (Published: 4 days ago) Snippet: IMF predicts 1% growth in 2026 despite challenges.Link: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/jan/10/russia-economy-collapse-oil-prices-fall-war

18. Is the Iranian Regime About to Collapse? - The Atlantic (Published: 4 days ago) Snippet: Five conditions for revolution met for first time since 1979.Link: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/2026/01/iran-revolution-protests-collapse/685578

19. Russia could feel the economic screws tighten in 2026 - Al Majalla (Published: Jan 5, 2026) Snippet: Hydrocarbons 25% of Iran's GDP; sanctions squeeze profits.Link: https://en.majalla.com/node/329093/business-economy/russia-could-feel-economic-screws-tighten-2026

20. Iran in Crisis: Time for a Change from Within - International Crisis Group (Published: 14 hours ago) Snippet: State responds with brute force to upheaval.Link: https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/iran-united-states/iran-crisis-time-change-within

21. Iran's Crisis of Calculation - Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (Published: 6 days ago) Snippet: Inflation at 42.2%; food prices up 72%.Link: https://jiss.org.il/en/grinberg-irans-crisis-of-calculation

22. Iran's protests look like the first tremors of regime collapse - Geopolitical Intelligence Services (Published: 23 hours ago) Snippet: Protests expose structural weaknesses.Link: https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/iran-protests-2026

23. Why Iran's Collapse Requires Decisive American and Israeli... - Fair Observer (Published: 19 hours ago) Snippet: Terminal phase after 12-Day War and economic collapse.Link: https://www.fairobserver.com/politics/why-irans-collapse-requires-decisive-american-and-israeli-intervention

24. Russian Missiles Failed in Venezuela During U.S. Attack - The New York Times (Published: 2 days ago) Snippet: Air defense systems from Russia not fully set up.Link: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/12/world/americas/venezuela-russian-weapons-fail.html

25. What does Nicolás Maduro's capture mean for Russia? - LSE Blogs (Published: Recent) Snippet: Decline in Russia's credibility as security partner.Link: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2026/01/08/russia-influence-latin-america-venezuela-maduro-capture

26. Why has Russia kept quiet over Maduro's ouster in Venezuela? - DW (Published: 10 hours ago) Snippet: Strong relations for two decades, but no action to stop capture.Link: https://www.dw.com/en/why-has-russia-kept-quiet-over-maduros-ouster-in-venezuela/av-75496736

27. How the ousting of Russia's ally Maduro benefits Moscow - CNBC (Published: Jan 5, 2026) Snippet: Not all bad news; leverage crisis.Link: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/05/how-the-ousting-of-russias-ally-maduro-benefits-moscow.html

28. From grudging respect to unease: Russia weighs up fall of Maduro - The Guardian (Published: Jan 5, 2026) Snippet: Concern over oil prices from Venezuela's reserves.Link: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/05/russia-weighs-up-fall-of-nicolas-maduro-venezuela

29. Russia's response to the US operation in Venezuela - Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) (Published: Jan 5, 2026) Snippet: Reputational blow; limited capacity to protect allies.Link: https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2026-01-05/kremlins-powerlessness-russias-response-to-us-operation-venezuela

30. Russia loses ally in Venezuela but hopes to gain from Trump's 'Wild... - Reuters (Published: Jan 5, 2026) Snippet: Deprives Putin of ally; increases U.S. oil clout.Link: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/russia-loses-ally-venezuela-hopes-gain-trumps-wild-west-realpolitik-2026-01-05

31. How Venezuela's Collapse Weakens Russia's Global Reach - Medium (Published: 8 days ago) Snippet: Pushed back toward borders; narrower sphere.Link: https://wesodonnell.medium.com/how-venezuelas-collapse-weakens-russia-s-global-reach-f6f96cef0d6d