The Shadow of Influence: Tactics of Regime Change Through Psyops, Color Revolutions, and Hybrid Warfare
- Rex Ballard
- Dec 14, 2025
- 10 min read
There is a long history of both the US and Soviet Union--now Russia--of deploying various tactics to undermine if not directly overthrow the regimes that they view as a threat to their own geopolitical interests. These tactics involve psychological operations (psyops), color revolutions and hybrid warfare. There is ample evidence that China, the other great superpower, is now engaging in such tactics as are a whole host of other more minor players such as Ukraine and Iran. There has been a great deal of press (both mainstream and alternative sources such as X, formerly Twitter, suggesting that these strategies are being actively employed to promote regime change efforts not only abroad but perhaps domestically. The tactics continue to evolve, blending psychological manipulation, mass mobilization, and multifaceted warfare. More importantly, who the players are that are deploying the tactics is a bit hazier these days.
This article will explore the historical roots, key tactics (psychological operations [psyops], color revolutions, and hybrid warfare), allegations of CIA involvement, the potential role of rogue operatives, and connections to recent events like the COVID-19 response, Operation Crossfire Hurricane, the "Seditious Six" controversy, Antifa and 2020 BLM protests. Drawing on declassified documents, released emails, and whistleblower testimonies, the article will do its best to distinguishes proven facts from popular conjecture. Enhanced with additional historical examples and contemporary insights, the article explores how these tactics erode legitimacy, exploit grievances, and create deniability that undermines public trust.
Historical Roots of Color Revolutions and Regime Change
Color revolutions mark a shift toward non-violent regime change, rooted in civil resistance amid post-Cold War democratization. Proven facts: These movements draw from Gene Sharp's 1973 book From Dictatorship to Democracy, outlining 198 methods of non-violent action, and align with Samuel Huntington's "third wave" of democratization in the 1990s. Declassified U.S. documents reveal indirect support, such as National Endowment for Democracy (NED) grants for Serbia's Otpor! in the 2000 Bulldozer Revolution, where student-led protests ousted Slobodan Milošević after fraudulent elections, as verified by OSCE observers and culminating in his Hague trial. In Georgia's (former Soviet Union) 2003 Rose Revolution, U.S. funding aided Kmara activists in overthrowing Eduard Shevardnadze, per public NED reports. Ukraine's 2004 Orange Revolution saw over $65 million in USAID aid back Pora groups, reversing Viktor Yanukovych's rigged victory, as detailed in declassified State Department files.
Key cases include:
Kyrgyzstan (Tulip Revolution, 2005): Deposed Askar Akayev amid election fraud, with international monitors citing tampering.
Lebanon (Cedar Revolution, 2005): Forced Syrian withdrawal after Rafik Hariri's assassination, linked to Syria by UN investigations.
Iran (Green Movement, 2009): Challenged Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's reelection, suppressed as reported by Amnesty International.
Arab Spring (2010–2012): Coordinated via social media, leading to uprisings across the Middle East.
Ukraine (Euromaidan, 2013–2014): Ousted Yanukovych amid corruption, per EU reports.
Hong Kong (2014, 2019): Pro-democracy protests documented by human rights groups.
Belarus (2020): Against Alexander Lukashenko, with OSCE condemning fraud.
Success varies: About 50% achieved regime change, but many backslid, per scholarly reviews. This fits broader U.S. history of 81 interventions from 1947–1989 (70% covert), as analyzed in Lindsey O'Rourke's Covert Regime Change using declassified archives. Popular conjecture: Adversaries like Russia and China claim these as Western "hybrid warfare," despite evidence emphasizing local drivers. Also, there is ample evidence that both Russia and China have launched similar campaigns.
Tactics for Driving Regime Change
These interconnected tactics—psyops for mental influence, color revolutions for civic action, and hybrid warfare for blended threats—facilitate regime change by targeting minds, masses, and systems.
Psychological Operations (Psyops)
Psyops use information and propaganda to influence perceptions, often via media or digital channels, categorized as white (overt), gray (ambiguous), or black (covert).
Proven facts: Declassified CIA files from June 2025's Studies in Intelligence (Vol. 69, No. 2) detail psyops in Cold War ops, including fake broadcasts in Guatemala's 1954 PB Success, which ousted Jacobo Árbenz by simulating invasion panic. In Vietnam, "Wandering Soul" tapes exploited superstitions for defections, and Chieu Hoi leaflets secured over 200,000 surrenders, per Army declassifications. MKUltra (1953–1973) tested LSD for mind control, exposed by the Church Committee. Recent declassifications highlight Churchill's Cold War psyops recruitment by the CIA for anti-Soviet propaganda. Deployed by the U.S. in anti-ISIS efforts via social media.
Popular conjecture: Extended to unproven ops like acoustic "cat spies" or exploding cigars against Castro, as listed in 2025 articles on audacious psyops.
Color Revolutions
Color revolutions mobilize peaceful protests against fraud, using symbols and often are propagated using Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) for urging democratic reform.
Proven facts: Serbia (2000), Georgia (2003), and Ukraine (2004) featured U.S. NED/USAID funding, per declassified reports. China's MPS declassifications accuse CIA schemes, but U.S. files show overt aid. Whistleblowers in 2025, including former CIA analysts, corroborate training roles in post-Soviet shifts.
Popular conjecture: Over 50 CIA-backed cases since 2003, per Global Times claims. There are persistent reports indicating that domestic groups such as BLM and Antifa are being funded by NGOs. No indictments have been filed to date that prove this assertion.
Hybrid Warfare
The playbook usually starts with psyops to mold public perceptions, followed by color revolution tactics. NGOs are often used for both these tactics. If these tactics do not yield the desired outcomes, the tactics are often escalated to hybrid warfare. Hybrid warfare merges conventional and non-kinetic tactics like cyber, proxies, economic coercion for ambiguity and can ramp up to public protests that can devolve into violent opposition.
Proven facts: Russia's 2014 Crimea used "little green men" and cyber ops, per NATO. China's South China Sea employs militias, per U.S. assessments. 2025 Hybrid CoE reports note rising Russia-China threats, including 44 hybrid incidents in 2024.
Popular Conjecture: There are persistent reports indicating that domestic groups such as BLM and Antifa are being funded by NGOs. No indictments have been filed to date that prove this assertion. We can see that Antifa protests against Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in Portland routinely became violent.
Allegations of CIA Involvement
Because much of the US involvement in these types of regime efforts that used these tactics can be traced back to the CIA, it is natural for people to assume that there is CIA involvement when we see the tactics being deployed within our own country. While it is true that the tactics we are seeing deployed domestically carry CIA hallmarks and may include covert funding, propaganda, and election exploitation they may be carried out by non-CIA organizations
Proven facts: Iran (1953) and Chile (1973) involved millions in bribes and media ops, per declassified memos. Recent 2025 declassifications reveal Cold War psyops with Churchill.
Popular conjecture: Persistent reporting that the CIA was involved in Arab Spring via social media.
Rogue Operatives and Opposition Ties
Not all incidents of these tactics are carried out by the CIA. Rogue agents that may be within the CIA, or are CIA trained sometimes act independently, often for partisan gains on behalf of parties to which they are aligned.
Proven facts: Edwin Wilson's Libya arms (1982 conviction); Iran-Contra illegal sales; Nazi collaborations, per declassified files. 2025 whistleblowers, like a CIA assault victim, expose internal misconduct.
Popular conjecture: Many believe that rogue agents, “the deep state”, are working on behalf of the Democrat party, World Economic Forum, United Nations, International Financial cartels and anarchist groups which have aided in launching campaigns in opposition to Donald Trump’s first term, during Biden’s term and that they continue now into Trump's current term. To date there have been no indictments or convictions to bear these theories out. There is mounting evidence in the form of declassified documents, emails and whistleblower testimony that may be moving this claim beyond the “Popular Conjecture” category.
Ties to Recent Events
COVID-19: Proven facts: Pentagon anti-vax psyops in Philippines. Popular conjecture: Hybrid psyop for control of the populace.
Crossfire Hurricane: Proven facts: 2025 DNI declassifications show Steele dossier flaws used to spy on the Trump Campaign and Administration; whistleblowers implicate Brennan/Comey. Popular conjecture: Rogue hybrid op for election interference. No “smoking gun” evidence – yet.
Seditious Six: Proven facts: FBI probe is underway but no charges or indictments to date. One of the six lawmakers, Sen. Mark Kelly is subject to the Uniform Code of Military Justice and an additional investigation is being conducted by the Department of the Navy. Popular conjecture: The video announcement by the six lawmakers is part opposition psyop or color revolution to sow distrust of the Commander in Chief among the military personnel.
BLM Protests: Proven facts: BLM activism was violent following the George Floyd protests. Most recently, Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) sites that recent BLM activities have been mostly peaceful. Recent indictments of BLM leaders for malfeasance indicates that the organization is devolving. This data comes from FBI infiltration notes. Popular conjecture: BLM was a domestic color revolution/hybrid warfare operation carried out by rogue operators in support of the Democrat Party.
ANTIFA: Proven facts: Antifa is being funded to some extent by NGOs and shadowy non-profit organizations.; from FBI arrests and infiltration notes. Popular Conjecture: Antifa is hybrid warfare in action, and it is an organization that is centrally controlled and financed by Soros backed organizations using NGOs. No clear evidence to date to prove this.
Whistleblowers – The Ones We Know and the Ones We Dont
In the ongoing discussions surrounding regime change tactics, psyops, color revolutions, and hybrid warfare, whistleblowers play a pivotal role in exposing alleged misconduct within U.S. intelligence and law enforcement agencies. These individuals, often risking their careers, reputations, and safety, provide insider accounts that challenge official narratives. As of December 13, 2025, whistleblowers can be categorized into "the ones we know" (named individuals with public testimonies, books, or legal actions) and "the ones we only hear about" (anonymous or rumored sources referenced in declassifications, leaks, or media reports, but without full public identification). Below, we expand on both categories, drawing from declassified documents, congressional testimonies, and recent public disclosures. Proven facts are based on verifiable sources like sworn affidavits or official reports, while popular conjecture highlights unverified accounts that may be amplified on partisan news sites.
The Ones We Know: Named Whistleblowers and Their Revelations
These are publicly identified figures who have come forward with specific claims, often backed by documents, interviews, or legal proceedings. Their testimonies have fueled investigations into alleged deep-state operations, including election interference, censorship, and regime destabilization efforts.
Patrick Byrne (Former Overstock CEO and Self-Identified CIA Asset): Proven facts: In a December 9, 2025, interview with Emerald Robinson on LindellTV, Byrne admitted to being a "Tier 1 National Intelligence Asset" for the CIA since the early 2010s. He claimed direct involvement in setting up the "Russia Hoax" under CIA Director John Brennan and President Obama, describing himself as Obama's "ace in the hole." Byrne detailed witnessing Smartmatic election technology rigged by Venezuelan cartels infiltrating U.S. systems and warned of an ongoing "color revolution" in America. His statements align with declassified DNI documents from July 2025 on election vulnerabilities, and he has previously testified in 2020-2021 election-related lawsuits. Popular conjecture: Byrne's narrative is often extended on X to suggest broader psyops involving domestic unrest (e.g., BLM as a distraction), but critics view his claims as self-serving without independent corroboration beyond his word.
Clíver Alcalá Cordones (Former Venezuelan General): Proven facts: In letters publicized on December 9, 2025, Cordones—currently in U.S. custody on drug charges—exposed the "Cartel de los Soles" manipulating elections via Smartmatic systems, claiming export to the U.S. with ties to compromised officials like Rick Grenell and John Ratcliffe. The letters were published in outlets like the Dallas Express and confirmed by Byrne. Smartmatic's Venezuelan origins are documented in 2020 lawsuits. Popular conjecture: This fuels theories of hybrid warfare extending to U.S. elections, with X posts speculating Soros or NGO facilitation, though no direct evidence links it to regime change ops.
Michael Shellenberger (Journalist and Former USAID/CIA Critic): Proven facts: In February 2025 congressional testimony before the House Judiciary Committee, Shellenberger revealed USAID and CIA roles in censorship operations, tying them to color revolutions and Trump's impeachment. He cited documents showing coordination with NGOs like OCCRP for disinformation and regime change tactics, building on the 2022-2023 "Twitter Files." His testimony is in official House records (February 12-13, 2025). Popular conjecture: On X, users extend this to claim Shellenberger exposes a "censorship-industrial complex" as hybrid warfare against domestic dissent, though he focuses on foreign threats.
Kyle Seraphin (Former FBI Agent): Proven facts: In December 2025 appearances (e.g., on the Alex Jones show), Seraphin used public data to argue the January 6 pipe bomb was a "deep state false flag," part of broader entrapment. He has testified before Congress (2023-2025) on FBI overreach, including whistleblower protections under new 2025 bills enhancing safeguards for FBI employees. Popular conjecture: X narratives tie this to color revolutions, inverting BLM unrest as engineered, but mainstream outlets dismiss it as theory. It lacks independent corroborating evidence.
John Kiriakou (Former CIA Officer): Proven facts: Jailed in 2007 for exposing CIA torture, Kiriakou in 2025 updates criticized Brennan as complicit in post-9/11 programs, aligning with the 2014 Senate Torture Report. He called for arrests amid Gabbard's declassifications. Popular conjecture: Links to Obama/Clinton cover-ups of psyops, but no new evidence beyond his advocacy.
Pedro Israel Orta (Former CIA Officer): Proven facts: In April 2025 X posts, Orta highlighted pre-2009 whistleblower reprisals under Obama, advocating for restoration. His book and testimonies detail CIA misconduct. Popular conjecture: Ties to broader "lost" whistleblowers in deep-state ops.
The Ones We Only Hear About: Anonymous and Rumored Whistleblowers
These are often referenced in aggregates or leaks without names, creating intrigue but limiting verification. They fuel conjecture about widespread systemic issues.
The 20-40 CIA/FBI Whistleblowers in Gabbard's Declassifications: Proven facts: In July-August 2025, DNI Tulsi Gabbard declassified documents based on sworn affidavits from 20-40 anonymous CIA and FBI analysts/agents, alleging Obama orchestrated the 2017 ICA to fabricate Russian interference against Trump. DNI press releases (e.g., PR-18-25) and House oversight reports confirm referrals to DOJ, with Gabbard stating in a September 2025 speech that whistleblowers are "coming out of the woodwork." One partial name emerged: Susan Miller, a former CIA analyst who countered Gabbard's framing but confirmed misrepresentations. Popular conjecture: X posts speculate these are "deep-cover patriots" exposing a "treasonous conspiracy," with rumors of more on psyops and color revolutions, but identities remain protected for safety.
Anonymous FBI Whistleblowers in Seditious Six Probe: Proven facts: Sources familiar with the matter (reported in Bloomberg Law, December 2025) indicate anonymous FBI agents resisted headquarters' pressure to escalate the inquiry, citing lack of basis. Popular conjecture: Rumors on X suggest these are "career leaders" leaking to counter political weaponization, tying to hybrid warfare narratives. FBI has ongoing investigation on this matter.
Rumored "Lost" Whistleblowers from 2009–2025: Proven facts: Orta's April 2025 posts reference unnamed pre-2009 reprisals under Obama. A 2025 bill enhances FBI protections, implying ongoing anonymous complaints. Popular conjecture: X threads speculate dozens of "shadow" whistleblowers on censorship (e.g., USAID ops per Shellenberger) or regime change, "lost through time" due to retaliation.
These whistleblowers—named or not—underscore tensions in U.S. intelligence, with 2025 DOJ priorities on white-collar enforcement potentially aiding probes. While known ones drive public discourse, anonymous ones hint at deeper systemic issues, often amplified in conjecture about "deep state" cover-ups. The number of whistleblower claims shine light on most of the Popular Conjecture claims and only time and additional evidence will change the category.
Implications
The tactics highlighted here are irrefutable. There is ample evidence of them being deployed successfully by the US and other world powers. However, the CIA has no monopoly on these tactics. There is no mistaking that much of what has taken place on the US political stage since Donald Trump announced his quest for the Presidency in 2015 has all the hallmarks of the destabilization “playbook” – psyops, color revolutions and hybrid warfare being deployed. We will all have to wait for the proverbial third act to learn exactly who the players are of this high stakes game that effects the daily lives of all Americans.
