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Supreme Leader May Have Fled Tehran Amid Escalating Protests and Violence

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Kahmenei - image Khamenei.ir
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Kahmenei - image Khamenei.ir

In the midst of a rapidly escalating crisis in Iran, unverified social media posts and leaked videos—primarily disseminated via Starlink satellite internet and some satellite phones—are fueling speculation that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has fled Tehran. These claims suggest that Khamenei, along with key regime figures, may have evacuated the capital as protests intensify, with some accounts pointing to a potential relocation to Moscow or other safe havens (bunkers) within Iran. However, these reports remain largely unconfirmed and lack substantiation from independent news outlets or international observers, amid a near-total communications blackout imposed by the regime.


The information trickling out of Iran highlights the role of alternative communication channels in piercing the regime's censorship. Despite efforts to disrupt even satellite-based services like Starlink—reportedly through advanced jamming techniques—sporadic videos and messages from protesters in cities such as Tehran and Esfahan have surfaced online. Activists claim that tens of thousands of Starlink terminals have been smuggled into the country, providing limited access and allowing glimpses into the unrest, including chants for regime change and calls echoing Iran's exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi. Satellite phones have also been cited as a means for Iranians to relay updates, though connectivity remains unreliable and heavily restricted.


The protests, which erupted in late December 2025, over economic collapse and have since spread nationwide, appear to have prompted a severe escalation in regime response. Unconfirmed reports from rights groups and opposition sources indicate that security forces, under Khamenei's directive, have ramped up violence, with estimates of protester deaths reaching as high as 2,000 or more in recent days alone. More conservative figures from U.S.-based human rights organizations place the toll at over 500 since the unrest began, though activists warn that the true number could be significantly higher due to the blackout and restricted access to hospitals. Eyewitness accounts leaked via social media describe widespread use of live ammunition, with streets in Tehran and other cities reportedly "full of blood."


Adding to the volatility, scattered reports suggest that in some regions, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) forces have been overwhelmed or forced to retreat. Social media posts claim IRGC units have fled areas in Qom, Fars, Lorestan, and parts of Tehran, with protesters taking control of streets and creating roadblocks. These assertions, often accompanied by unverified videos, portray a regime in "survival mode," with defections among security personnel and direct appeals from Pahlavi urging military forces to join the people. Again, no independent verification exists, and state media continues to deny any loss of control, instead calling for counter-protests and vowing retaliation against external threats.

Protests have broken out in all 31 provinces of Iran - image wikimedia.com
Protests have broken out in all 31 provinces of Iran - image wikimedia.com

Update: Tracked Military Asset Movements Heighten Tensions

Amid the ongoing unrest, open-source intelligence and flight tracking data have revealed significant movements of military assets by the United States and other actors, signaling potential preparations for intervention or deterrence. Dozens of U.S. heavy transport aircraft, including C-17 Globemaster IIIs and C-5M Galaxies, along with refueling tankers like KC-135 Stratotankers and KC-46A Pegasus, have been observed surging from U.S. and UK bases toward Middle Eastern staging points such as Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar and facilities in Saudi Arabia since early January 2026. Special operations units, including the 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment (Night Stalkers) with CV-22 Osprey tilt-rotors, have been spotted conducting drills at RAF Fairford and Mildenhall in the UK, while AC-130J Ghostrider gunships have also arrived in the region. Additionally, MQ-4C Triton drones have been conducting daily reconnaissance flights over the Strait of Hormuz, and two U.S. carrier strike groups—led by the USS Carl Vinson and USS Nimitz—remain positioned in or near the Arabian Sea, providing around 180 aircraft including F-35Cs and F/A-18s. Reports also indicate the deployment of three U.S. guided-missile destroyers equipped with Tomahawk missiles near Iranian waters, part of a broader buildup that analysts describe as unusually heavy and reminiscent of preparations before the June 2025 strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.

C-17 Globemaster - image www.boeing.com
C-17 Globemaster - image www.boeing.com

On the Iranian side, movements of missile forces near the Persian Gulf, close to U.S. bases, have been reported in response to U.S. threats, alongside the activation of air surveillance radar systems in Tehran and other cities. Russia has been conducting heavy cargo flights into Iran, reportedly delivering Mi-28 attack helicopters and other equipment to bolster defenses, while unconfirmed sightings suggest Chinese military transports may also be involved. A rare U.S. "doomsday" plane (E-4B National Airborne Operations Center) has been spotted at multiple airports, indicating high-level military preparation. These movements, tracked via open-source flight data and social media, underscore the risk of rapid escalation, though U.S. officials emphasize they are for deterrence amid President Trump's warnings of intervention if protester killings continue. No major offensive actions have been confirmed, but the scale suggests the U.S. could deploy significant forces quickly if the situation deteriorates further.


The situation in Iran remains highly volatile, with protests entering their third week and showing no signs of abating. International concerns are mounting, including calls from the UN for an end to the crackdown and warnings of potential mass killings. As communications restrictions persist, the full scope of events is difficult to ascertain, underscoring the challenges in reporting from within the country. Observers urge caution in interpreting social media leaks, emphasizing the need for corroborated evidence before drawing firm conclusions.


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