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Rare March Cyclone Pounds Hawaiian Islands

 Hurricane season in Hawaii runs from June 1 to November 30, so this past week’s weather has been quite unusual.  The Hawaiian Islands have experienced an exceptionally wet and disruptive week in mid-March 2026, driven by a powerful and rare Kona low—a stalled subtropical cyclone northwest of the state that funneled deep tropical moisture directly over the islands. This slow-moving system, which intensified from early March and peaked in intensity around March 11–15, has produced torrential rainfall, flash flooding, landslides, strong winds, power outages, school closures, and widespread infrastructure impacts. In some areas, it's been described as one of the most intense rain events in modern Hawaiian history, shattering long-standing rainfall records.


Hawaii New Now Report on Flooding

Record-Breaking Rainfall Totals

The storm dumped extraordinary amounts of rain, far exceeding typical March norms (which average just a couple of inches in many spots). Key highlights from preliminary reports through March 16 include:

  • Near the summit of Haleakalā on Maui: Totals approached 40 inches over several days.

  • West Maui Mountains: Up to 27.5 inches in three days.

  • Upcountry Maui areas (e.g., Kula): Multiple gauges exceeded 20 inches in five days, with some spots seeing over 20 inches in shorter periods.

  • Kahului Airport (Maui's typically dry north shore): 13.6 inches from Wednesday through Saturday—more than the entire previous year in some comparisons.

  • Oahu: Wettest spots saw over 12 inches in 24 hours at peaks; Honolulu recorded 5.51 inches in a single day, breaking a record from 1951.

  • Kauai (e.g., Lihue): 5.47 inches in one day, more than doubling a 2006 record.

  • Hawaii Island (Big Island): High totals on Mauna Loa and other areas, with five-day accumulations topping 20 inches in places.


Rain rates reached 1–3 inches per hour in the hardest-hit zones, leading to rapid runoff on saturated ground. Wind gusts topped 70 mph in areas such as Kaunakakai, causing toppled trees and hazardous conditions. The event triggered a state of emergency, numerous flash flood warnings, high wind alerts from the National Weather Service (NWS), and even blizzard-like conditions at higher elevations on the Big Island.

Impacts have included flooded roads (e.g., in Hana and Waianae), landslides (too many to count in some reports), isolated communities, power outages affecting tens of thousands, and dramatic rescues. Schools and government offices closed across multiple islands, and officials urged residents to avoid driving through flooded areas.


Current Forecast and Outlook

As of March 16, 2026, the Kona low is gradually lifting northeastward and weakening, with the heaviest rain bands shifting east and tapering off. However, the ground remains extremely saturated, so even lighter rain can cause quick runoff and lingering flash flood risks—particularly on leeward (south- and west-facing) slopes of Maui and Hawaii Island, where heavy rain is less common.

  • Through Sunday night (March 16): Flood watches remain in effect for Maui County and Hawaii Island. Expect sporadic showers, isolated thunderstorms, and possible heavy downpours in pockets, especially windward and leeward areas. Winds will ease but could still gust strongly near mountains.

  • Into early next week: Conditions improve significantly statewide. The main storm drifts away, leading to drier weather overall. Some lingering showers are possible Monday–Tuesday, but intensity drops markedly. No major additional heavy rain is expected in the immediate forecast, though another disturbance could bring scattered rain later in the week—nothing on the scale of this event.

  • Longer term: Hawaii transitions toward more typical trade wind patterns, with drier and more stable conditions expected.


This Kona low event underscores the unpredictability of climate patterns and highlights Hawaii's vulnerability to extreme rainfall, even in what is normally a transitional season. Residents and visitors should continue monitoring NWS Honolulu updates for any flash flood or wind advisories, and avoid flood-prone areas until conditions fully stabilize.


Sources:

Hawaii News Now — Multiple articles and updates on rainfall totals exceeding forecasts, 5-day accumulations (many over 20 inches on Maui and Hawaii Island), and statewide impacts. Example: "Rain Check: 5-day totals show Kona Low dumped more rain than forecast across Hawaii" (March 16, 2026) — https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2026/03/16/rain-check-5-day-totals-show-kona-low-dumped-more-rain-than-forecast-across-hawaii

 

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