California's Largest Export - Jobs!

Jobs are leaving California at an alarming rate

The Accelerating Loss of Employment in 2025

As of December 27, 2025, critics continue to describe jobs as California's "largest export," a stark commentary on the state's ongoing loss of employment opportunities. This trend is fueled by corporate headquarters relocations, refinery and manufacturing plant closures, policy-driven layoffs, and a steady out-migration of residents seeking better prospects elsewhere. California employers have announced 173,022 job cuts from January to November 2025 alone—a nearly 14% increase from the same period in 2024. The state's unemployment rate has climbed to around 5.6%, with persistent declines in key sectors like technology, manufacturing, and services. These job losses not only erode the workforce but also trigger cascading economic effects, including reduced consumer spending, strained local budgets, and declining real estate values in affected areas.

Out-Migration Trends: U-Haul Data and Softening Housing Markets

U-Haul's 2024 Growth Index, released in January 2025, ranked California 50th (last place) for net migration for the fifth consecutive year. Approximately 50% of one-way truck rental transactions involved departures from the state, far outpacing arrivals. Mid-2025 data reinforces this pattern, with California as a top origin for moves to growth states like Texas and the Southeast. This exodus is closely linked to job availability, affordability, and perceived business climates elsewhere.

The migration wave, combined with job reductions, is softening real estate markets in several regions:

• Bay Area: Home to many tech layoffs and relocations, this area has seen the steepest declines, with median prices down ~3% year-over-year overall. Specific counties like Marin (-9.5% to $1.47 million) and cities like Berkeley (-12.6%) highlight the impact.

• San Diego: Prices have fallen -2.1% year-over-year, reflecting broader Southern California slowdowns.

• Southern California (overall): Monthly declines of -0.3% in November (to ~$853,000), marking the sixth drop in seven months, amid refinery closures and manufacturing losses.

• Statewide: A modest -0.4% year-over-year drop in November, but concentrated in high-cost, job-vulnerable urban centers.

These price drops signal weakening demand in areas hit hardest by employment shifts, further compounding economic strain through reduced property tax revenues and slower local growth. In spite of these modest declines, California still has the highest median home price of all 50 states ranking it the least affordable. This according to Visual Capitalist.

Specific Factors Make California Less Desirable for Employers, Refiners, and Manufacturers

California's business environment ranks poorly in national assessments, often placing near the bottom due to a combination of high taxes, regulatory burdens, and elevated costs. In the Tax Foundation's 2025 State Tax Competitiveness Index, California ranked 48th overall, dragged down by high individual income taxes (up to 13.3%, the nation's highest) and corporate taxes (8.84%). Chief Executive's 2025 Best and Worst States for Business survey similarly positioned the state near last, citing regulatory complexity and costs as top deterrents. These factors make the state less attractive compared to competitors like Texas (ranked 1st in many metrics) or Florida.

There is no escaping the notion that over-regulation in a single-party rule state like California—where Democrats have dominated the legislature and governorship for decades—contributes to shrinking markets and economic outflows. The very idea is supported by various analyses and undeniable statistics. California's regulatory environment, including stringent labor laws (e.g., AB 5 restricting gig worker classifications and PAGA enabling private lawsuits for violations), environmental mandates (e.g., California Environmental Quality Act or CEQA causing permitting delays and costs in the millions for projects), and consumer protection rules (e.g., new 2025 laws on data privacy and worker protections), has been cited by departing businesses as a key driver for relocations and closures. These regulations, combined with high compliance costs, have created an anti-business climate, prompting an exodus of companies and workers to states with lighter regulatory loads. For instance, a 2025 report highlights how bills like AB 566 (imposing new utility oversight) threaten small businesses with added costs and potential litigation.

High Tax Rates and Fiscal Burdens

• Corporate and Income Taxes: California's 8.84% corporate tax rate is among the highest in the U.S., while personal income taxes reach 13.3% for high earners—a key issue for recruiting talent in tech and executive roles. Employers often cite these as reasons for relocations, as they increase operational costs and make compensation packages less competitive.

• Sales and Property Taxes: High sales taxes (base 7.25%, up to 10.25% locally) and property taxes under Proposition 13 add to business expenses, particularly for manufacturers and retailers.

Regulatory Costs and Compliance Burdens

• Labor Regulations: Laws like AB 5 (restricting gig worker classification) and PAGA (enabling private lawsuits for labor violations) expose employers to high litigation risks and costs. New 2025-2026 laws, including enhanced pay data reporting, mass layoff notices (SB 617), and stricter worker protections, further increase administrative burdens.

• Environmental and Permitting Regulations: The California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) causes lengthy permitting delays for projects, adding millions in costs for manufacturers and refiners. For refiners specifically, California Air Resources Board (CARB) rules—like cap-and-trade, low-carbon fuel standards, and unique gasoline formulations—have driven unprofitability, leading to closures that reduce capacity by 17.5%. Manufacturers face similar issues, with high energy costs (due to renewables mandates) and compliance hurdles contributing to projected 2,500 job losses by 2033.

• Workers' Compensation and Health/Safety Rules: Premiums are among the highest nationally, averaging $2.68 per $100 of payroll, deterring employers in labor-intensive industries.

High Cost of Living and Home Prices

• Affordability Crisis: Median home prices exceed $800,000 statewide, making it difficult for employers to attract and retain talent without premium salaries. This exacerbates out-migration, as workers seek affordable housing in states like Texas or Nevada.

• Energy and Operational Costs: High utility rates (due to green energy mandates) add to manufacturing overhead, while trucking regulations (e.g., CARB's Advanced Clean Fleets rule) increase logistics expenses.

These elements create a "cumulative burden" that executives cite in departure announcements, pushing businesses toward states with lighter regulations and lower costs.

Key States Gaining Workers from California

Based on recent migration data from sources like the U.S. Census Bureau, moving company reports (e.g., U-Haul, Atlas Van Lines, Allied Van Lines), and search trends, several states are experiencing net gains in population and workers, often at California's expense. Californians specifically are moving to these destinations in high numbers, driven by job opportunities, lower costs, and business-friendly environments. The top gaining states for 2024-2025 (based on net domestic migration, one-way moves, and relocation searches) include:

• Texas: Leads in net domestic migration gains (~85,000 in 2024, down from prior peaks but still top), with many Californians citing jobs in tech, energy, and manufacturing. It's the #1 destination for outbound Californians in 2025 data.

• Florida: Strong net gains (~64,000 in 2024), ranking #1 or #2 in multiple reports; attracts retirees, remote workers, and businesses from California due to no state income tax and warmer climate.

• South Carolina: Tops U-Haul's 2024 full-year list for the first time, with high net migration shares (~68,000 domestic); gaining from California via affordable housing and manufacturing jobs.

• North Carolina: Leads in relocation search volume (17.5% net inbound) and ranks high in moving reports; benefits from tech hubs like Research Triangle and lower costs attracting Californians.

• Tennessee: Consistent top performer in migration reports, with gains in Nashville's tech and music sectors; appeals to Californians for no income tax and lower living expenses.

• Idaho: Tops some 2025 moving reports for inbound moves, driven by remote workers and families from California seeking affordability and outdoor lifestyles.

These states collectively account for a significant portion of California's outbound migration, with Texas and Florida alone receiving over half of Californians leaving in recent years.

Comparison of Cost Structures Between California and Gaining States

Cost structures—encompassing taxes, regulations, living expenses, and business operations—play a pivotal role in these migration patterns. California ranks poorly in business climate indexes (e.g., 48th in the 2026 State Tax Competitiveness Index), largely due to high taxes and regulatory burdens, while gaining states like Florida (4th) and Texas (13th) offer more favorable environments. Below is a comparison table based on 2025 data for key metrics (cost of living index from MERIC/Council for Community and Economic Research; tax rates from Tax Foundation; business rankings from Tax Foundation and Chief Executive surveys; housing from median home prices via Redfin/Zillow estimates). Note: Cost of living index uses U.S. average = 100; higher numbers indicate more expensive.

State	Cost of Living Index	Corporate Tax Rate	Top Individual Income Tax Rate	Median Home Price (2025 Est.)	Business Tax Competitiveness Rank (2026)	Key Regulatory Advantages Over CA
California	142.2 (3rd highest)	8.84%	13.3%	~$800,000	48th	N/A (baseline: heavy regs like CEQA, PAGA)
Texas	93.9	None (franchise tax ~0.375-0.75%)	None	~$350,000	13th	No income tax; lighter labor regs; faster permitting
Florida	100.7	5.5%	None	~$400,000	4th	No income tax; business-friendly courts; minimal worker lawsuit exposure
South Carolina	95.3	5%	6.4%	~$300,000	31st	Lower energy costs; incentives for manufacturing; fewer environmental hurdles
North Carolina	92.9	2.5% (phasing to 0%)	4.5%	~$350,000	11th	Declining corporate tax; streamlined regs for tech/biotech
Tennessee	90.4	6.5%	None	~$350,000	15th	No income tax; right-to-work laws; low workers' comp premiums
Idaho	92.3	5.8%	5.8%	~$450,000	20th	Low regulatory burden; affordable energy; fast business setup

In summary, gaining states offer 20-40% lower overall living costs, no or low income taxes (saving high earners thousands annually), and less burdensome regulations (e.g., fewer lawsuits under PAGA equivalents, quicker project approvals without CEQA-like delays). This contrast fuels California's "shrinking markets" by drawing away workers and businesses, potentially perpetuating a cycle of higher taxes and regulations to offset revenue losses.

Reduction in New Home Construction: A Symptom of Overregulation

California's housing market woes extend to a notable slowdown in new home construction, further illustrating the state's regulatory and cost challenges. In 2025, single-family residential starts fell 13.3% in the first six months compared to 2024, while building permits dropped 4% statewide in the first half of the year. The state builds only about 100,000 units annually against a needed 180,000+, perpetuating shortages and high prices.

Specific over-regulations add 20-40% to home construction costs:

• Mandatory fire sprinklers add $5,000–$15,000 per unit.

• Solar panel mandates add $10,000–$20,000 per home.

• Electrification/no gas appliances add $10,000–$30,000 per unit.

• CEQA permitting delays (2–3 years) and fees ($20,000–$50,000 per unit).

• Impact fees average $23,000–$100,000+ per unit for infrastructure.

High labor costs (20-30% above national average due to shortages and prevailing wage laws) add $30,000–$50,000 per project. The new home industry is also severely impacted by the state's insurance crisis (many insurers withdrawing from the California market and surging premiums) which makes homes difficult/more expensive to insure which impacts a buyers ability to obtain mortgages for new homes, thereby impacting sales. This cumulative burden shifts new home construction to less regulated states.

Headquarters Relocations: High-Wage Jobs Depart

High-profile companies have relocated headquarters, often explicitly blaming California's tax and regulatory environment. Examples include Tesla (Palo Alto to Austin, Texas, in 2021), Chevron (San Ramon to Houston, Texas, in 2024), and others like Oracle and Hewlett Packard Enterprise. These moves export thousands of high-paying roles, reducing local economic activity and exacerbating talent drain.

Refinery Closures: Blue-Collar High-Pay Jobs Lost

Environmental regulations have hit refineries hard, leading to closures that eliminate well-compensated positions.

• Phillips 66's Los Angeles-area refinery is closing permanently in December 2025, citing unprofitability from CARB's low-carbon standards and cap-and-trade.

• Valero's Benicia facility will cease operations by April 2026 for similar reasons.

California over regulation is forcing oil companies out of the state.

The economic impact of the loss of each of these high paying jobs is multiplied 2x to 5x when you take into account secondary and tertiary job losses related to suppliers, subcontractor, teachers, nannies, gardners, etc. Each of these categories lose jobs or pay when these people leave the state.

Manufacturing and Food Processing Plant Closures Accelerate

Manufacturing has seen consistent declines, with 2025 closures driven by high labor costs, high energy costs, permitting delays under CEQA, lack of skilled talent and global trade pressures. Projections indicate declines are likely to continue through 2033, concentrated in Central Valley and urban areas. The northern part of the state will see similar job losses in such industries as timber.

As a result of California Minimum Wage laws, fast food workers are being replaced by automation

Minimum Wage Policies: Accelerating Automation and Cuts

The $20/hour fast-food minimum wage, effective April 2024, has accelerated job losses in service sectors, with estimates of 10,000–19,000 positions cut through automation like kiosks and AI ordering systems. The industry expects to see further job cuts as they implement more automation across various roles.

Estimated Job Losses (2025 Focus)

Direct losses create secondary ripple effects through reduced spending and supply chains (multipliers of 2–5x by sector).

Category	Direct Job Losses (2025 Est.)	Secondary Impacts (Est.)	Notes
Announced Cuts (Jan–Nov)	173,022	Hundreds of thousands	All sectors; up 14% YoY
Fast-Food Minimum Wage Effects	10,000–19,000	Service/retail ripple	Automation-driven
Refinery Closures	1,000+	Logistics/supply chain workers in the thousands	Phillips 66 & Valero
Manufacturing/Food Processing	Thousands	Agri/industrial networks job losses in the thousands	Multiple plant closures
Headquarters Relocations	Tens of thousands (cumulative)	High-wage multipliers related impacts are 2x to 5x	Ongoing reductions

Quantified Financial Impacts (Annual Estimates, 2025–2026 Period)

These job losses impose direct costs (lost wages and taxes) and secondary/tertiary effects (e.g., reduced spending, higher energy prices). Out-migration erodes ~$4.5 billion in annual revenue. Refinery closures could add $1.21+ per gallon to gas prices (~13.5 billion gallons consumed annually), with extreme projections nearing $8 (doubling from ~$4.30), risking tourism declines of 10–30% in road-trip reliant areas. Tertiary impacts include strained social services, lower property taxes from declining home values, and reduced innovation from talent loss.

Impact Category	Estimated Annual Cost	Notes
Direct Losses (wages/taxes from ~173k+ announced cuts & migration)	$15–25 billion	Lost income + PIT/corporate revenue; high-wage sectors dominant
Secondary Multiplier Effects (suppliers, spending ripple)	$20–50 billion	2–5x amplification; affects retail, services, supply chains
Out-Migration Revenue Loss	~$4.5 billion	Ongoing high-earner/taxpayer exodus
Higher Gas Prices (refinery closures)	$10–30 billion (base)	+$1–$2/gallon projected; regressive burden on households/businesses
Hypothetical Near-Doubling Gas Prices (~$8+) – Additional Impacts	$20–50 billion (scenario)	Broader drag + tourism deterrence (road trips down 10–30%)
Tourism Decline (base + gas effects)	$2–10 billion	Slight 2025 dip; severe gas hikes could cut spending significantly
Budget Deficit Exacerbation & Program Cuts	$5–15 billion (contribution)	Structural shortfalls growing to $35b+ annually; affects services
Total Estimated Annual Economic Drag	$60–130 billion (base) to $100–200 billion (severe gas scenario)	Cumulative; long-term effects on growth, housing, and competitiveness

The state is already facing a staggering $18-$24 billion budget deficit and those estimates do not take into account the impacts set out in this article.

In closing, the job losses and their profound economic impacts are largely of California's own making, stemming from over-regulation in a single-party ruled state that has prioritized expansive mandates over business competitiveness and affordability. Unfortunately, this is a state that only knows how to deal with budget short falls in one way -- to raise taxes.

Sources:

The article draws on a variety of sources from recent reports, analyses, and data on California's economic trends, job losses, regulations, migration, housing market, refinery closures, minimum wage impacts, and construction declines. Below is a compiled list of key sources referenced or aligned with the content. I've prioritized unique, credible references from the searches, grouped by topic for clarity. Note that some sources may overlap across categories, and I've included publication dates where available for context.

Job Cuts and Economic Impacts

1. California hammered as national job cuts jump to a five-year high - Los Angeles Times (Published: Dec 4, 2025) - https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2025-12-04/california-hammered-as-national-job-cuts-jump-to-five-year-high Details on 173,022 job cuts in California through November 2025.

2. Central Valley unemployment rises across sectors, 2025 - Fresno Bee (Published: Dec 21, 2025) - https://www.fresnobee.com/article313656953.html Covers statewide payroll job losses and sustained declines since the pandemic.

3. California layoff plans hit 158700 workers, No. 2 in US - Orange County Register (Published: Nov 6, 2025) - https://www.ocregister.com/2025/11/06/california-layoff-plans-hit-158700-workers-no-2-in-us/ Analysis of layoff plans accounting for 14% of U.S. total.

4. Opinion | California's top industries cut back in a sluggish economy - CalMatters (Published: Oct 31, 2025) - https://calmatters.org/commentary/2025/10/california-sluggish-economy-cutbacks/ Discusses tech and Hollywood layoffs, with growth only in government and healthcare.

5. California Economic Outlook 2025: AI Boom, Job Losses and Public Concern - State Affairs Pro (Published: Dec 3, 2025) - https://pro.stateaffairs.com/ca/economy/california-economic-outlook-2025 UCLA and PPIC reports on job losses and economic outlook.

6. From Silicon Valley to Hollywood, California job market is taking a hit - Los Angeles Times (Published: Nov 26, 2025) - https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2025-11-26/from-silicon-valley-to-hollywood-california-job-market-is-taking-hit Broader impacts on unemployment and economic slowdown.

7. Layoff announcements top 1.1 million this year, the most since 2020 - CNBC (Published: Dec 4, 2025) - https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/04/layoff-announcements-this-year-top-1point1-million-the-most-since-2020-when-pandemic-hit-challenger-says.html National context with California's high share.

8. Mapped: U.S. Job Losses by State in 2025 - Visual Capitalist (Published: Nov 25, 2025) - https://www.visualcapitalist.com/u-s-job-losses-by-state-in-2025/ California accounts for 14% of U.S. layoffs in tech and manufacturing.

9. Full March 2025 Jobs Report - Center for Jobs (Published: Apr 2025) - https://centerforjobs.org/ca/job-reports/full-march-2025-jobs-report Nonfarm job losses and revisions.

10. 2025 California Jobs Market Report - EDD (Published: Sep 1, 2025) - https://edd.ca.gov/siteassets/files/pdf_pub_ctr/2025_california_jobs_market_report.pdf Pandemic impacts and 15.5% nonfarm job loss.

Migration and U-Haul Data

11. U-Haul 2025 Midyear Migration Trends - U-Haul (Published: Jul 16, 2025) - https://www.uhaul.com/Articles/About/U-Haul-2025-Midyear-Migration-Trends-35212/ Top origin states and California's net loss.

12. Who is moving in and out of California? Recent moving data shows trends - Desert Sun (Published: Jul 25, 2025) - https://www.desertsun.com/story/news/nation/california/2025/07/25/california-migration-trends-uhaul-top-cities-los-angeles-austin-phoenix-san-francisco-dallas/85374302007/ U-Haul data on California moves.

13. More People are Moving from California U-Haul Reports - California Globe (Published: Aug 25, 2025) - https://californiaglobe.com/fr/the-gavin-newsom-effect-more-people-are-moving-from-california-u-haul-reports/ One-way truck rentals leaving California.

14. U-Haul Reveals 2025 Moving Trends: Big Cities Are Back - Finger Lakes 1 (Published: Aug 25, 2025) - https://www.fingerlakes1.com/2025/08/25/2025-moving-trends-uhaul-report-big-cities/ Insights into migration from California.

15. New data shows more people are leaving California - NBC Bay Area (Published: Jul 17, 2025) - https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/u-haul-california-moving-data/3916811/ Fifth year of net loss in U-Haul rentals.

Real Estate Price Declines

16. California Housing Affordability Tracker (3rd Quarter 2025) - Legislative Analyst's Office (Published: Nov 6, 2025) - https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/793 Monthly payments up 74% since 2020.

17. California Housing Market 2025: Predictions, Price Trends, and What Buyers Need to Know - Bay Legal (Published: Sep 15, 2025) - https://baylegal.com/california-housing-market-2025-predictions-price-trends-and-what-buyers-need-to-know/ Unlikely significant price drops due to low inventory.

18. California's housing market is still stuck in a rut. Here's why - CalMatters (Published: Jul 28, 2025) - https://calmatters.org/housing/2025/07/california-housing-market-redfin/ High rates, tariffs, and shortages hurting the market.

19. C.A.R. releases its 2026 California Housing Market Forecast - California Association of Realtors (Published: Sep 17, 2025) - https://www.car.org/aboutus/mediacenter/newsreleases/2025releases/2026forecast Median home price projections and sales decline.

20. Bay Area home prices fall, marking largest annual price decline in California figures show - KTVU (Published: Dec 16, 2025) - https://www.ktvu.com/news/bay-area-home-prices-fall-marking-largest-annual-price-decline-california-figures-show Sales down 3.5% in Bay Area.

21. California Housing Market Insights 2025 - ManageCasa (Published: Jun 2, 2025) - https://managecasa.com/articles/california-housing-market-report-2025 Bay Area median price down 0.5%.

22. Home prices are poised to dip in 22 U.S. cities next year, a new forecast says - CBS News (Published: Dec 4, 2025) - https://www.cbsnews.com/news/housing-market-forecast-2026-price-declines-real-estate-mortgage/ Mortgage rates dip but declines in some areas.

23. Housing Tracker: Southern California home values drop in November - Los Angeles Times (Published: Dec 19, 2025) - https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2025-12-19/housing-tracker-southern-california-home-values-drop-in-november Sixth drop in seven months.

Regulations and Business Climate

24. Business Regulation and Business Starts in California - PPIC (Published: Dec 9, 2025) - https://www.ppic.org/publication/business-regulation-and-business-starts-in-california/ Perceived overregulation impacting business climate.

25. End of California's 2025 Session Sets New Standards for Employers - PBW Law (Published: Dec 11, 2025) - https://www.pbw-law.com/how-the-end-of-californias-2025-session-sets-the-new-standards-for-employers-in-2026/ New "Know Your Rights" notice and worker protections.

26. California Employers: Are You Ready for the New Laws of 2025? - Cal Labor Law (Published: Nov 12, 2024) - https://callaborlaw.com/blog/california-employers-are-you-ready-for-the-new-laws-of-2025 Minimum wage increases and compliance.

27. California 2025 Legislative Rundown: Key Changes Coming for Employers - Ogletree (Published: Oct 22, 2025) - https://ogletree.com/insights-resources/blog-posts/california-2025-legislative-rundown-key-changes-coming-for-employers/ Bans on repayment contracts.

28. How California's 2025 Regulations Are Shaping the Future of Business - Supporting Strategies (Published: 2025) - https://www.supportingstrategies.com/blog/how-californias-2025-regulations-are-shaping-the-future-of-business/ Updates on labor, privacy, and environmental standards.

29. California Finalizes Regulations to Strengthen Consumers' Privacy - CPPA (Published: Sep 23, 2025) - https://cppa.ca.gov/announcements/2025/20250923.html New privacy rules effective 2026.

30. New business laws from 2025 - Scali Rasmussen (Published: Dec 4, 2025) - https://scalirasmussen.com/insight/2025/12/04/new-business-laws-2025 Bans on harmful chemicals and data protections.

31. California Small Business Laws 2025: What You Need to Know - Ampac (Published: 2025) - https://ampac.com/california-small-business-laws-2025/ Taxes, subscriptions, and retirement mandates.

Refinery Closures

32. California's Gasoline Market May No Longer Need to Be an “Energy Island” - Institute for Energy Research (Published: Dec 22, 2025) - https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/fossil-fuels/gas-and-oil/californias-gasoline-market-may-no-longer-need-to-be-an-energy-island/ 17% capacity loss from closures.

33. Why California could be contending with $5 gas next year - CNN (Published: Dec 19, 2025) - https://www.cnn.com/2025/12/20/business/california-gas-prices-closing-refineries Martinez refinery reopening and closures.

34. California Refinery Closures Spark Pipeline Race to West Coast - Energy Now (Published: Nov 2025) - https://energynow.com/2025/11/california-refinery-closures-spark-pipeline-race-to-west-coast/ Phillips 66 and Valero shutdowns.

35. California refinery closures seen as US security risk as Valero exits Golden State - Yahoo Finance (Published: Dec 17, 2025) - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/california-refinery-closures-seen-us-234500380.html Security risks from closures.

36. California's New Oil Era: How Regulatory Shifts, Industry Mergers, and Refinery Closures are Reshaping the Golden State's Energy Landscape - TGS (Published: Oct 13, 2025) - https://www.tgs.com/weekly-spotlight/10-13-2025 Phillips 66 closure by late 2025.

37. California's Oil Refineries - California Energy Commission - https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-almanac/californias-petroleum-market/californias-oil-refineries P66 Wilmington closure in Q4 2025.

38. Refinery closures present risk for higher gasoline prices on the West Coast - EIA (Published: Jul 9, 2025) - https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65704 17% capacity loss over 12 months.

39. Asian fuel suppliers eye US West Coast market amid California refinery closures - S&P Global (Published: Sep 23, 2025) - https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/refined-products/092325-asian-fuel-suppliers-eye-us-west-coast-market-amid-california-refinery-closures Phillips 66 shutdown by end of September.

Minimum Wage and Job Losses

40. Californians still don't know impact of $20 fast food wage - CalMatters (Published: Sep 12, 2025) - https://calmatters.org/commentary/2025/09/fast-food-minimum-wage-california/ Conflicting studies on 19,000 job losses.

41. Did California's Fast-Food Minimum Wage Reduce Employment? - Cato Institute (Published: Nov 5, 2025) - https://www.cato.org/research-briefs-economic-policy/did-californias-fast-food-minimum-wage-reduce-employment 3.2% employment decline, 18,000 jobs lost.

42. Governor Newsom Protests Too Much: The Minimum Wage Increase Did Destroy Jobs - Pacific Research Institute (Published: Aug 4, 2025) - https://www.pacificresearch.org/governor-newsom-protests-too-much-the-minimum-wage-increase-did-destroy-jobs/ -2.3% employment decline in California.

43. A $20 Minimum Wage: Effects on Wages, Employment and Prices - IRLE Berkeley (Published: Sep 14, 2025) - https://irle.berkeley.edu/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/20_Minimum_Wage_in_CA_September-7-2025.pdf Effects of $20 wage on fast-food sector.

44. California Nears 20K Job Losses After $20 Fast Food Wage - MinimumWage.com (Published: Sep 12, 2025) - https://minimumwage.com/2025/09/california-nears-20k-job-losses-after-20-fast-food-wage/ 19,000 jobs lost since law signed.

45. Did California's Fast Food Minimum Wage Reduce Employment? - NBER (Published: 2025) - https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w34033/w34033.pdf Median estimate of 18,000 jobs lost.

46. CA Fast Food Nears 20,000 Lost Jobs Since $20 Minimum Wage - EPI Online (Published: Sep 9, 2025) - https://epionline.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/CA-2025-Jobs-Release.pdf -3.3% loss, 19,102 jobs.

47. California's fast-food minimum wage is super-sizing job losses - CEI (Published: Jul 14, 2025) - https://cei.org/blog/californias-fast-food-minimum-wage-is-super-sizing-job-losses/ 18,000 jobs lost.

48. California lost 16k restaurant jobs since $20 wage law - NRN (Published: 2025) - https://www.nrn.com/quick-service/california-lost-16-000-restaurant-jobs-since-20-minimum-wage-was-signed-into-law -2.8% decline in fast-food employment.

New Home Construction Decline

49. Housing Starts Rebound, But Permits Fall | August 2025 - CB Cal (Published: Aug 25, 2025) - https://cbcal.com/economic-report/august-2025-housing-market-update-cbc/ Multifamily construction surge but permits at lows.

50. Housing Construction Permits in California Fall to Lowest Level - Davis Vanguard (Published: Sep 4, 2025) - https://davisvanguard.org/2025/09/construction-slowdown-california-2025/ 49,400 permits in first half, 4% decline.

51. Are California home permits increasing? Here's what the data says - SF Chronicle (Published: Sep 26, 2025) - https://www.sfchronicle.com/realestate/article/housing-permit-law-california-21065440.php Permits at ~300 per 100,000 population.

52. California's housing market is still stuck in a rut. Here's why - CalMatters (Published: Jul 28, 2025) - https://calmatters.org/housing/2025/07/california-housing-market-redfin/ High rates and shortages.

53. What's Behind the 2025 Construction Slowdown - RiskWire (Published: Jul 7, 2025) - https://www.riskwire.com/whats-behind-the-2025-construction-slowdown/ Starts at five-year low in May.

54. California residential construction starts - First Tuesday Journal (Published: Sep 26, 2025) - https://journal.firsttuesday.us/the-rising-trend-in-california-construction-starts/17939/ 13.3% down in first six months.

55. Housing construction slowed again in August - KPMG (Published: Sep 17, 2025) - https://kpmg.com/us/en/articles/2025/august-2025-housing-starts.html 8.5% plunge nationally, similar in CA.

56. Exclusive: UCLA survey tracks expected California construction decline - PERE Credit (Published: Aug 6, 2025) - https://www.perecredit.com/exclusive-ucla-survey-tracks-expected-california-construction-decline/ 85% more cautious due to tariffs.

57. The Economic Outlook for California at Mid-Year - California Forecast (Published: Jun 2025) - https://californiaforecast.com/june-2025/ Lowest permits since 2015.